Blue states like Oregon are always ones to pay attention to in regards to the progressive movement. While there is an inherent desire to improve conservative shitholes like Alabama by voting out all the right wing dipshits, it’s only natural that progressives would have a better shot in places where basic human decency is the norm. I guess it goes without saying that there are quite a few progressive challengers to talk about. In fact, there is a progressive challenger in all five of Oregon’s congressional district. But I suppose we need to talk about the Senate race first.
It is pretty safe to assume that Jeff Merkley isn’t in any real danger of losing his Senate seat this year. 2014 was a brutal year for Democrats and Merkley still won his last election by over 250,000 votes. In the middle of a blue surge, the inevitable throwaway Republican candidate will be lucky to manage more 40% this time. It is for this reason that I feel no shame in promoting a third party candidate as an alternative to Merkley. Read more
Nebraska hasn’t exactly been given much attention this election cycle. It’s not surprising that this is the case since Nebraska has an R+14 PVI rating, the same rating as Alabama for comparison sake. A Democrat has not won a US Senate seat or the Governorship even once since 2010, and Democrats have been performing worse over time. There is a senate seat up for re-election in 2020, and that seat belongs to Republican Ben Sasse.
Ben Sasse isn’t a particularly interesting Senator. He’s your typical Republican goon who has criticized Trump occasionally but votes along with him anyway. While it’s highly unlikely he will lose re-elections, there are a few signs that this race could go better than we expect. The first of these is that Ben Sasse’s approval rating has had a significant dip from the 3rd quarter of 2019 to the 4th. While it hasn’t dipped far enough to put Sasse at serious risk (Deb Fischer was in a worse position during the 2018 election and still won in a landslide), it could mean a potential opening if this trend continues and there is a good candidate to capitalize on it. Read more
Yeah, I didn’t get a Weekly Bern installment up last week. The reason for this was because I was focused on a bunch of other shit, and nothing really eventful happened. Anyway, it turns out that Bernie Sanders just dropped out of the Presidential race, meaning that creepy Joe Biden is now the nominee.
While it should be noted that Bernie is still on the ballot, he is done campaigning. This effectively means that Biden will be the nominee unless by some miracle, everyone who already favored Biden decides to vote for Bernie instead, and lord knows the normie Democrats are too complacent to vote for a candidate that has already stopped campaigning. Read more
Well, looks like I’m going to get to do a piece on Ohio after all. I briefly talked about Ohio’s progressive candidates a few weeks ago since I didn’t think I’d have the time to make a piece. Then the Corona Virus happened and the election was delayed to April 28th where it will be done entirely by mail. What is of note is that this occurred because Republican Governor Mike Dewine ordered the polling places closed in defiance of the courts, showing a surprising moment of integrity compared to the three other states that held their primaries that day. I’d give the Republicans credit, but considering that two of the other three states had Republican Governors, I don’t think it would be warranted.
Unfortunately this also makes things problematic in that mailing in votes makes things harder for new voters who don’t know how to follow absentee ballots. Unfortunately I think it’s the best we can do for now because social distancing, flatten the curve, yada yada. Read more
Despite the fact that all the normies are going insane at the prospect of not going outside, there is an advantage to this whole virus situation. That advantage is that the elections are getting delayed, and this means Bernie has more time to shift the narrative in his favor. But instead of that, he’s spending all his time trying to combat the virus and help people through a difficult and dangerous situation. Almost like some sort of President or something!
Meanwhile Joe Biden has done absolute shit. He’s been in hiding for multiple days and then had a speech where he stumbles over and slurs his words while reading from a teleprompter. He also conveniently wants to skip out on the next debate so he can hide his cognitive decline and not have to argue that Bernie’s policies are too radical and socialist while at the same time advocating for them to be implemented during the quarantine period. Read more
So part three of Super Tuesday is up and it is a downer ending as well. We just made it through the worst trilogy since the Zelda CDI games, and we better pray that the next primary is not our Hotel Mario! Silly game related in-jokes aside, it’s easy to assume that we are fucked and that Biden has already won. While I try the best to be as optimistic as possible in even the worst of times, even I am starting to get concerned. Well I was already concerned, but now I’m even more concerned then when I was already concerned.
Biden’s delegate lead has now grown even larger since Bernie did not manage a come from behind victory in the final states in the Super Tuesday trilogy, not counting Ohio whose primaries are postponed to who knows when. Bernie has now stated that he is going to reassess his campaign, and thankfully that does not mean he has dropped out.
Welcome to my newest series, The Weekly Bern. As the title implies, this series will recap everything happening related to Bernie Sanders and the movement that he spawned. The idea is to get out a piece every week to recap what is going on, because if you couldn’t tell, there’s a lot of shit happening.
At the time of writing this, we have just come off of what I am calling Super Tuesday Jr, where we basically had a similar result to last week. Biden won most of the states, but Bernie hasn’t fallen TOO far behind. A lot of people have already begun to despair and given up hope, but many of us are forgetting that only 47% of the delegates have come into play right now, and we still have a long way to go. If we continue at the same pace we are going now, then we’re going to lose. The plus side is that we’ve already seen how quickly the tide can turn in this race. Read more
Things are not going as we expected right now. After several months of the Bernie Sanders campaign building itself up and gaining traction, after Bernie became the first candidate to win all three early states in the Democratic primary, we see three candidates drop out and endorse Biden. And suddenly, Bernie is back to being the underdog, Cenk Uygur lost his primary race in a land slide, and Jessica Cisneros just barely lost to Trump’s favorite Democrat. We got smacked in the face with the crushing reality that our Democracy is only for show, and that the establishment is always one step ahead of us.
Or is it?
So, we’ve now reached the point where Texas, fucking TEXAS, is considered a swing state. I’ve already written about the 2018 Senate race a number of times, so I’ll direct your attention to my previous piece. The short version is that the 2018 Democratic nominee in the Texas Senate race, Beto O’Rourke, came within a few percentage points of beating the incumbent Ted Cruz. This was noteworthy not just because a Democrat almost won in Texas, but also because said Democrat almost beat a former Presidential candidate by running on progressive ideas like Medicare for All… at first.
Unfortunately, Beto always showed a few cracks in his campaign, such as his moderate past or the fact that he was not fully clear about Medicare for All. Beto was, at one point, considered a rising start in his party and was even one of the big names in the 2020 Presidential campaign at one point, but most of us realized that his 2018 performance was a major fluke when he started to pivot to the center. Read more
So the last two political pieces I covered involved blisteringly red states where the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of the party of corrupt rich boomers, yet they still had some cracks starting to appear. Now we get to look at the opposite side of the coin; an overwhelmingly blue state that is about to get even bluer.
Okay maybe that’s not entirely accurate. Not because there are some more conservative areas of Illinois, but rather because there is a lot more to the state of politics than a simple “red vs blue” divide where red is good and blue is bad. Instead the dynamic that will be most talked about her is the “progressive vs neoliberal” divide.
The American Democratic party is currently in the middle of an ongoing civil war between two factions. There is a common misconception that figures like Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Nancy Pelosi are to the far left on the political spectrum. While Republicans will often claim that these people are “radical socialists” who want to change the way this country functions, this actually could not be further from the truth. Read more