I’ve decided I’m going to make this piece preemptively this time. The last piece I made in regards to elections covered every Congressional and Gubernatorial election in 2018. While I know that my overall influence is limited, I want to do whatever I can for the rights of my kind and my allies so I’m going to split the subject matter up AND will do my best to prepare you all beforehand.
Additionally, I’m going to be talking about more than social issues this time. I’ve decided to focus on Senatorial Elections first because democrats have the House of Representatives and Democrats are significantly less shitty than Republicans (although still quite shitty). There is an increasing presence of progressive leftists with ambitious ideals and a genuine care for the well being of this country, it’s people, and the world around us.
There will be a total of 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2020, 12 of those seats are currently held by Democrats while the remaining 22 are held by Republicans. Republicans have held a majority of Senate seats ever since 2014 and this has resulted in constant obstructions of any sort of social progress by then President Barack Obama, and they currently serve as the last line of defense towards the impeachment of current President Donald Trump.
Democrats currently hold 47 out of 100 Senate seats in the US (including Bernie Sanders and Angus King, both of whom are independents who caucus with the Democrats). Democrats would need a net gain of 4 seats in order to gain a majority under a Republican President. In the 2018 Senatorial elections, Republicans had a net gain of 2 seats. This was only the case because Democrats were defending 26 of the 35 seats while Republicans were only defending 9. Democrats lost 4 of the seats they were defending while republicans lost 2. IE Republicans lost half the amount that democrats did despite defending less than 1/3rd of the seats that were up for re-election.
The short version is that Democrats won over twice as many Senatorial elections as republicans did in 2018, so it seems quite clear that between this and Dems winning the House that people are PISSED at Republicans! Donald Trump getting elected may have been a blessing in disguise considering that this anger is only going to continue into 2020. Shit like Trump’s Government shutdown and his attempts to declare a national emergency over his stupid fucking wall will not only result in more people turning up to vote his ass out of office, but pretty much any Republican dickbag who continues to associate with him. It just so happens that Republicans hold most of the seats up for re-election in 2020 as well.
As I’ve said in the past though, we can’t simply rely on everyone else voting in our best interests. I’m pretty damn sure the only reason Trump was elected was because literally no one thought he would actually win. If you turn 18 before voting season next year or have never voted prior, MAKE SURE YOU REGISTER! If there is any election that calls for it then it is this one! And regardless of who is running against Trump this time whether it’s Bernie Sanders, Kamela Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigeig, Joe Biden, or any of the other comically absurd number of people eager to be the person to save the US from the worst president the country has had since Andrew Jackson, fucking vote for them! You can save your third party votes for when Republicans start running boring centrist candidates again.
And yes, the Senatorial elections are also important to given that they also hold a great deal of power. Thus if you are showing up to vote one douchebag out of office, you may as well vote another one out to. I plan to showcase what each state will have to look forward to while also providing any necessary info about the incumbents, and I also plan to calculate the chances of each incumbent winning re-election based on the total amount of Democratic and Republican votes in the 2018 House elections. Starting with…
Ah Alabama, the butt of every incest joke ever made that isn’t anime related. Back in 2017 Alabama made a rare good decision by not electing pedophile Roy Moore to the Senate in a special election. The downside is that said pedophile still obtained 48.3% of the vote because in Alabama, the only thing worse than being a pedophile is being a Democrat. So that is how Democrat Doug Jones won his Senate seat and prevented a pedophile from being elected to the US Senate. Unfortunately this means that it might be harder for Doug Jones to win re-election unless his opponent in 2020 is also a pedophile.
In addition to not being a pedophile, Doug Jones is your fairly typical centrist Democrat. He supports both gay and trans rights, he’s against the repeal of the Affordable health care act, is pro choice, pro immigration, and isn’t all of those shitty things Republicans are. He’s not perfect, he did vote in favor of SESTA/FOSTA and against the Green New Deal after all, but he’s pretty damn good for Alabama’s standards.
The first confirmed Republican opponent is Bradley Byrne, whom I briefly mentioned in my 2018 Midterms piece. It has already been established that Byrne is a homophobe and hates when women have access to potentially life saving medical treatment, but he’s also against regulating greenhouse gas emissions and a total Trump groupie who will “fight with President Trump to defend the Constitution, build the wall, stand up for the unborn, push for lower taxes, make health care more affordable, and protect the Second Amendment.” So yeah, it’s basically a Republican checklist there. All he needed to do was mention “religious freedom” and he’d have gotten everything. For comparison’s sake, Doug Jones has voted with Donald Trump 43.2% of the time while Bradley Byrne has voted with Trump 96.5% of the time.
The plus side is that Doug Jones has almost double the campaign budget of Byrne and even he doesn’t seem too concerned with him so maybe Doug will have a chance if Byrne is the best they have. Additionally, one can also bring up the fact that Byrne did not withdraw his endorsement of Roy Moore after the allegations of sexual misconduct came out, so that may balance things out if Byrne gets the Republican nomination.
The second declared candidate is former Auburn Head Coach Tommy Tuberville, and he seems more competent that Byrne thus far, but that’s only because I can’t find much about his positions. He supports Trump though so he can’t be good, but he’d probably be better than Byrne nonetheless. Sadly that means he also has a better chance of beating Jones.
There is also former televangelist Stanley Adair who is running for the Republican nomination. All that I know about him is that he is “a supporter of Trump, pro-life and the 2nd amendment.” That tells us all that we need to know, but he still looks like he will be better than Byrne but also has a better chance at defeating Jones.
The last registered Republican candidate is State Representative Arnold Mooney, and he’s just as bad as Byrne. In the four years he has served in the Alabama House, he has voted toallow officials to refuse gay weddings for religious reasons, to allow adoption agencies to disallow same sex couples from adopting, to prevent local governments from establishing employee benefit programs, to bar special elections and instead allow the Governor to appoint their own flunky to take the seat of any vacant seat (which is a very blatant power grab), and to voted to classify abortion as a class A felony even in cases of rape or incest.
Oh, and Roy Moore is considering running again. He even compared himself to Brett Kavanaugh and thought that was somehow a good thing. The two of them are a lot a like after all, mainly in that they are both disgusting and perverted scumbags along with anyone who supports them, and that they are both manipulative and abusive bastards who blame all their failings on the evil DemonCrats and their… hatred of rapists. The plus side is that him getting the nomination will likely mean that Jones will keep his seat. Update: Roy Moore is running again. Alabama Secretary of State John Merril is running as well.
But it should be worth mentioning that Doug Jones has a few Democratic challengers as well. There is only one other challenger that is registered and that is Alabama State Representative John Rogers. If I am being honest, I actually prefer John Rogers to Doug Jones and think he is a better fit for the office. Namely because Rogers is far more honest about his liberal beliefs and has a much stronger dedication to leftist values than Jones does. Ironically enough, I think NRSC spokesperson Nathan Brand put it the best…
Doug Jones and John Rogers share the same views on abortion, but Rogers is at least honest about it.
Of note is that John Rogers is one of only three people who voted against that horrific abortion bill in the Alabama House. You really have to give him credit for taking a stand on his values despite how red of a state Alabama is. Of course, Jones has a much better ability to appeal to moderates but I’m also pretty sure that Rogers could find an untapped base of leftists voters who didn’t vote because they didn’t feel Jones represented their interests. It seems like it could go either way to be honest, but I just hope that one of them beats whoever the GOP throws at them. Other potential candidates include 2018 Gubernatorial nominee Walt Madox and Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin.
Based on the combined totals of totals of the 2018 House elections, I am predicting that there will be about 1,049,572 Republican votes and 723,007 Democratic votes assuming that 2020 follows the same pattern as 2018 without any significant changes. This is a result fairly close to Richard Shelby’s election in 2016 and Kay Ivey’s re-election in 2018. Potential anomalies could include whether or not the Republican nominee supported Roy Moore or how well funded the Republican nominee is. Jones may have a decent chance if Bryne runs against him but I don’t know about the others yet.
Alaskan senator Dan Sullivan’s seat will be up for re-election in 2020. Dan Sullivan is, well, he’s your average Republican Senator so he’s pretty shit. He’s the type that didn’t support Trump back in 2016 but since then has gone along with everything he did ever since Trump took office, which just shows that his opposition to Trump was just an attempt at performative wokeness. Anyway here are his actual positions.
Sullivan is a homophobe for starters. He is opposed to same sex marriage and has spouted the typical Republican dog whistle of “I believe it should be left to the states,” which basically is code for “I think that the gay marriage ruling should not be enforced in states that really really really don’t want it to be.” These people only think it should be a states rights issue when the federal government allows gay marriage to exist, and would have said the opposite if states wanted to legalize it but the federal government still outlawed it.
On top of this, Dan Sullivan has voted to repeal Obamacare, to defund Planned Parenthood, against re-instating net neutrality, against the Green New Deal, in favor of SESTA FOSTA, and is a climate change denier. He has given his support for Trump’s wall and voted yes for 21 of Trump’s 22 cabinet nominations. The 22nd one wasn’t even a “no,” he just didn’t vote. He also voted against blocking Trump’s national emergency declaration over that god damn wall. Statistically, he has also voted with Donald Trump 92.3% of the time. In short, Dan Sullivan is a total Trump flunkie and needs to be voted out of the senate in 2020!
But who will run against him you may ask? Alaska in currently under a Republican trifecta where both Senators, Alaska’s sole Representative, and Alaska’s Governor are all Republicans. There are three potential Democratic nominees that are cited as possible opponents.
The first of these is Mark Begich. Mark Begich was actually a former Alaskan senator himself who held the office from 2009 to 2015. Mark Begich seems to be your typical Democrat as he is pro-choice, supports same sex marriage, and isn’t a climate change denier so he’s definitely a better choice than Sullivan. There’s only one problem; he literally already lost to Sullivan in 2014. On top of this, he also ran for Governor and lost that election as well. So it seems unlikely that he will win against Sullivan in 2020.
We also have Ethan Berkowitz, the current mayor of Anchorage and a former Alaska state representative. There is at least some brand recognition since he is mayor of the most famous city in Alaska (or at least the only one I know without looking them up), but you really see the problem with just how much Republicans have controlled the Alaskan legislature. Don Young has been the sole US Representative from Alaska since 1973 for fucks sake! Good lord someone needs to perform an exorcism on that old prick already!
That brings us to Alyse Galvin who TRIED to run a wooden stake through Don Young’s heart in 2018, but lost to him because he never had a heart to begin with. One may have noticed that there hasn’t exactly been many well known people to challenge the Republican trifecta, but nonetheless they deserve your support every time they try because holy hell Alaska is fucked otherwise.
Update: Alyse Galvin has declined in favor of taking another shot on Don Young.
Assuming that there are no anomalies, it is most likely that Dan Sullivan will win with somewhere around 150,000 votes and his opponent will have 130,000 if the election of Mike Dunleavy and Don Young in 2018 and Dan Sullivan’s 2014 victory repeat themselves. This does not take into account any changes in attitudes though, and it could be possible that more people show up to vote for not Trump and decide to also vote Democrat.
The seat up for grabs in 2020 is that of Republican senator Martha McSally. Some of you who don’t pay close attention to Arizona politics may be wondering why Martha McSally is in the Senate despite the fact that she lost to Kyrsten Sinema in 2018. The reason was because Governor Doug Ducey needed to appoint someone to fill the rest of the recently deceased John McCain’s term. The previous appointee Jon Kyl only agreed to serve for the remaining 4 months of 2018, so they decided to appoint Martha McSally since they were butthurt that she lost. Thankfully there is going to be a special election to determine who serves the remaining two years of McCain’s final term, which is fair enough I suppose.
I previously mentioned in my 2018 Midterm piece that McSally has a pretty homophobic track record, but let’s go into greater detail here. She believes that “marriage is between one man and one woman, and it should be left to the states,” a statement so generic that she may as well have just said “homophobic euphemism.” She also is opposed to laws that prevent legal discrimination against gay people, and voted to repeal Obama’s guidelines against discrimination based on sexual orientation.
Her approach to trans rights issues is even worse as she has voted to prohibit funds for gender identity related transitioning, is suspiciously silent on Trump’s military ban of trans people, and has stated that “transgender children are a danger to other children” right to the face of the mother of a trans child!
It’s always funny how Republicans who try to hide their anti gay bigotry don’t give the same treatment to trans people. They are instead much more overt and hold nothing back. They should ask Pat McCrory how being a bigoted scumbag helped his chances of re-election. Oh wait, it didn’t! He lost re-election in the same year that Trump won, in a red state for that matter.
But don’t worry, she also doesn’t think institutionalized sexism against women exists unless they need to wear veils or are honer killed if they are raped, voted to defund Planned Parenthood, voted against the Green New Deal, and to strip 32 million people of their health care like all Republican pricks do. Also she admits climate change exists but still opposes any attempt to combat it so she may as well be a climate change denier.
Similarly to that of Dan Sullivan, Martha McSally disavowed Donald Trump during his 2016 campaign but went back on that once she realized it was safe to do so. She claimed that Trump’s comments on the Hollywood Access tape (the one where he admitted to sexually assaulting women because he’s a star and can get away with it) were “disgusting” and “unacceptable,” yet she agrees with Trump on the border wall, started to embrace most of Trump’s rhetoric in her 2018 campaign, and voted in favor of Trump’s national emergency declaration to fund his monument to white supremacy. She has also voted with Donald Trump 95.3% of the time. We also know fully well that her bigotry is totally in line with Donald Trump’s. If you think that Trump’s comments were “disgusting” and “unacceptable,” then what do you think that makes those who support him Ms. McSally? At least she has shown her true colors.
Thus far McSally has one declared opponent and that is Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut, engineer, US Navy captain, and the husband of former US representative Gabby Giffords. Given that he’s the husband of a former congresswomen who held McSally’s district before her, Mark Kelly may be a fairly decent choice strategy wise and seems to be the most likely choice for the nomination considering that he’s running as a moderate Democrat (which is more than likely the case since he’s running in a red state and because Kyrsten Sinema used the same tactic in her campaign).
The only concern is whether or not this will result in a 2016 presidential election repeat on a smaller scale given that Arizona leftists have been preparing for Ruben Gallego to run for quite some time. If I were from Arizona, my vote would more than likely go for Gallego since he has been a long established supporter of LGBT rights while Kelly has been kinda silent on that front. Unfortunately, Gallego has declined to run but there are others who might run against Kelly as well.
Thus far, the most commonly cited contenders are former State Representative and 2010 Arizona Secretary of State candidate Chris Deschene, incumbent Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and US Representative and former Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton. My personal choice would be Greg Stanton but they are all great choices.
McSally is also commonly listed as one of the most vulnerable GOP senators for 2020. It’s not hard to see why given that she already lost to a bisexual woman in a red state and simply had her senate seat given to her by Doug Ducey as a participation trophy, and also because McSally abandoned her core audience by going from a moderate to full on Trump groupie. So hopefully history repeats itself and she loses again in 2020.
Based on the added up totals of the 2018 House elections, it is likely that there will be 1,179,193 people voting Democrat and Republicans will have 1,157,957. This would fit well with Kyrsten Sinema’s election in 2018 but at the same time, Doug Ducey also won re-election to Governor with 1,330,863 votes, so it looks like a toss up that could go either way with a slight Democrat leaning. This is all the more reasoning for you to show up to vote McSally out of office.
The Senator from Arkansas that is up for re-election is Tom Cotton, who was first elected in 2014. Considering that Arkansas is a deep red state, it’s going to be difficult for any Democrat to defeat Cotton in 2020. Governor Asa Hutchinson won re-election in 2018 with a 10% higher lead than in 2014, and only one of four Republican House reps from Arkansas won with a lead lower than 60%. In short, it’s going to take a lot to unseat Tom Cotton in 2020, but maybe enough people will show up to vote against Trump and they’ll decide to vote against Cotton while they’re there. Yeah it’s a long shot I know, but that only gives you more reason to vote if you live in Arkansas.
But what dirt is there on Tom Cotton other than “he’s a Republican” you may ask? Well he’s a homophobe for starers, but it’s not your usual euphemistic “leave it to the states” garbage. He has instead openly stated his support for the Defense of Marriage Act that banned same sex marriage on the federal level. When interviewed on CNN, he responded to criticism over anti gay legislation in Arkansas with the “Iran hangs you for being gay so you can’t criticize us” remark. Seriously, if the best defense you have is “we’re not Iran” then you aren’t as far off as you think.
Oh, and who can forgetthat leaked audio recording with one intern of Cotton’s that called British people “faggots,” called Paul Ryan a cuck, openly admitted to anti Muslim bigotry, claimed that Americans “are the superior race to everyone in the world,” and said that “You will die in the streets if you are an idiot” within the span of three minutes. While this intern was eventually fired, the sheer fact that Cotton had a full blown Neo Nazi working with him should be a red flag. Then again, Cotton probably agrees with him but just won’t admit it for PR purposes.
Predictably as fuck, Tom Cotton also loves Trump and voted in favor of every last one of Trump’s cabinet nominees. Tom Cotton also supports Brett Kavanaugh and pushed conspiracy theories about Christine Blasey Ford. So this means that if you are a woman and have ever been raped, Tom Cotton and everyone who votes for him thinks you are a liar and hates you.
On top of this, he admits that climate change is “probably real” but that the market should handle it. This is basically code for “I don’t care if the planet gets destroyed as long as we profit from it.” Cotton also voted against a bill to prevent another government shut down right after Donald Trump’s 35 day temper tantrum over the wall that resulted in the longest government shutdown in US history. Note that this bill passed the senate 83-13, so even most Republicans were against it. Statistically, Tom Cotton has voted with Donald Trump 87.2% of the time.
He also voted against re-instating net neutrality, against reinstating the Violence Against Women Act, is in favor of non violent and mostly black offenders being locked up in prison for lengthy sentences, in favor of stripping 32 million people of their health care, is in favor of Trump’s national emergency to fund his monument to white supremacy, voted in favor of SESTA/FOSTA, voted against the Green New Deal, and voted against disaster relief for Puerto Rico… even Trump was in favor of this one for fucks sake! Of all the times to go against your precious senpai you chose this one? What the bloody fuck is wrong with you???
Tom Cotton is among the worst of the worst Republicans in office. I’m sincerely hoping that he loses his seat. Unfortunately this is deep red Arkansas so it will be a tough fight. The plus side is that there is talks of former Democratic governor Mike Beebe running against Cotton in 2020. Mike Beebe may be a Democrat, but he is very well liked in Arkansas with his approval rating never dipping below 70% as governor. There’s only one problem: he’s retired.
He seems to be the best chance at beating Cotton, but he doesn’t seem to have much interest in running. Instead, the only registered candidate thus far is Josh Mahony, a nonprofit executive and 2018 Democratic Congressional nominee. I quite like Mahony’s campaign from what I have seen, but him winning is going to be a challenge. Other potential candidates include State Senator and 2010 Democratic Congressional nominee Joyce Elliot, former North Little Rock Mayor and 2014 Democratic Congressional nominee Pat Hays, and State Senator Greg Leding.
The Republicans have been winning by higher margins in Arkansas in the last few elections than previous years, which means that this is going to be a tough fight for Democrats. This just makes it all the more important that you show up to vote for whoever runs against Tom Cotton, donate to their campaign, and do absolutely everything to keep Cotton from getting another term.
If things continue the way they are, the results in 2020 will most likely be 554,339 Republican votes and 312,942 Democrat votes. Potential anomalies could include whether or not Mike Beebe runs or endorses the Democratic candidate. This is why deep red states always have the biggest pieces of shit elected; because they know they can get away with it on party loyalty alone. Arkansas will need every vote it can get if there is to be any hope of Tom Cotton losing re-election.
Colorado is mostly a blue state at this time with one senate seat blue, four out of seven house seats blue, and with the Governor being an openly gay Democrat. It just so happens that the senate seat up for re-election is Republican Cory Gardner’s. Cory Gardner’s seat is has been cited as one of the most at risk Senate seats for 2020. Given that Democrats have won Colorado in every Senatorial, Gubernatorial, and Presidential election since 2008 with exception to Gardner’s narrow victory in 2014, Gardner already has his work cut out for him. Considering that Democrats are PISSED at Republicans and have been turning out in higher numbers as a result of anti Trump backlash, we have a better chance of Trump admitting he is wrong than Gardner winning re-election. I almost felt sorry for Cory Gardner with how screwed he is, but then I looked at his record.
Cory Gardner is, predictably enough, a homophobe. His record on gay rights is abysmal. As a Colorado state senator, he voted against a bill to give same sex couples in civil unions the same rights as married straight couples, to block same sex couples from adopting children, and voted against three separate bills to prohibit discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. As a House Representative, he voted to ban the use of federal funds that went against the “Defense of Marriage Act,” by which they actually mean gay people getting married and having the same rights and benefits are straight people.
On top of this, Gardner has also voted against a bill to require Colorado health insurance plans to cover autism related treatments, voted against the ratification of the UN Convention of the Discrimination Against Women,voted in favor of SESTA/FOSTA, voted against the Green New Deal, and voted to defund Planned Parenthood… twice.
Additional Gardner fuckups include voting to throw 32 million people off their healthcare in 2012, and doing so again in 2017 by being one of the 13 senators to draft Trumpcare. He has also voted against reinstating net neutrality and referred to it as “brazen abuse of power and overreach.”
I would also like to address the fact that he voted against allowing the use of ranked voting methods for local elections in Colorado. For those that don’t know what ranked voting methods are, it’s where each voter ranks whoever they vote for by order of preference. For example, if ranked voting methods were used in the 2016 Presidential election, it would mean that those who voted for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein would have their vote counted for whichever of the two main candidates they preferred more.
Given that most major third party candidates are often progressives, this approach would almost universally favor Democrats because they are more likely to see Democrats as the lesser of two evils. It also means that those who preferred Trump over Clinton but voted for Johnson or Stein would have had their vote counted towards Trump, yet you will notice that Republicans are often against this system despite the fact that it inevitably results with the more favored candidate. They are against them precisely because Republicans know they would lose more elections because of this, the same reason why they are in favor of keeping the electoral collage. It’s quite telling how Republicans are doing everything they can to hold on to their power because they know they would be booted out of office in an instant otherwise.
Now let’s talk about how Gardner compares with Trump. Gardner frequently frames himself as a moderate and he admits that climate change is real, buthe still votes with Trump against our environment at nearly every turn. He hasvoted in favor of 21 of Trump’s 22 cabinet nominees, he voted in approval of both Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to the supreme court, the latter of whom he was fully aware of the allegations against and even called for “civility” over appointing a rapist to the supreme court. He also is in support of Trump’s wall and voted in favor of his national emergency. Statistically, Cory Gardner has voted with Donald Trump 90.3% of the time.
This stuff may work out for him if he ran in a deep red state, but in the increasingly blue Colorado it may as well be political suicide. I don’t think he has much of a chance of victory, and the only question is who is going to replace him? Unsurprisingly, there are already a ton of people who have declared candidacy for the Democratic primaries in Colorado.
The four most notable candidates, by which I mean the only four candidates with Wikipedia pages, are John F. Walsh, Dan Baer, Micheal Johnston and Andrew Romanoff. John Walsh was appointed by Obama as United States Attorney for the District of Colorado who served from 2010 to 2016 , and Dan Baer is the former United States Ambassador for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe who was also nominated by Obama (and also has a very long title). Micheal Johnston has been both a Colorado State Senator and ran for Governor in 2018 but was defeated in the Democratic primaries. Andrew Romanoff was a member of the Colorado House of Representatives and was the Speaker of the Colorado House from 2005 to 2008. He also ran for the US Senate in 2010 and for the US House of Representatives in 2014.
Other noteworthy candidates include the head of the Colorado Statewide Parent Coalition and openly queer woman Lorena Garcia, former candidate for Colorado House of Representatives District 45 Danielle Kombo, pharmacist and former Colorado State Central Committee member Dustin Leitzel, activist Derrick Blanton, technician and veteran’s advocate Keith Pottratz, former Boulder County Democratic Chair Ellen Burnes, former Colorado House Minority Leader Alice Madden, Democratic Congressional Nominee Stephany Rose Spaulding, psychologist and climate activist Diana Bray, and biomedical scientist Trish Zornio. There’s also former Governor John Hickenlooper when he inevitably fails to gain the Democratic nomination for President.
Update: Danielle Kombo and Keith Pottratz have dropped out of the race.
Based on what I can see, I love most of these candidates. Johnston and Romanoff seem to be the more moderate Democrat candidates available, and thus I’m naturally more inclined to support those further to the left. My most preferred candidates are Lorena Garcia and Derrick Blanton, but one thing for sure is that Cory Gardner is SCREWED!!!
Assuming there are no anomalies, I predict that 1,421,405 will vote Democrat in 2020 and 1,079,775 will vote Republican. This seems to be in the same area as Micheal Bennet and Jared Polis’s total votes compared to their opponent. So yeah, Gardner is fucked.
Delaware is a deep blue state so it’s safe to preemptively assume that democratic incumbent Chris Coons will be re-elected. Granted Chris Coons doesn’t seem to be as popular as Tom Carper is given he won with 55.8% of the vote compared to Carper’s 66% in 2012 and 60% in 2018.
Chris Coons has a pretty solid voting record. The only blight on his record is thathe voted in favor of SESTA/FOSTA, but considering that only 2 senators voted against it, this is hardly something that can be pinned on Coons alone. As much as I hate to admit it, more Republicans voted against SESTA/FOSTA than Democrats did in the House. I can imagine sex worker rights becoming more of a core issue in the future that more leftists will embrace similarly to gay and trans rights, but that is a whole other issue that would take way too long to go into here.
Statistically, Chris Coons has voted with Donald Trump only 31% of the time and has not once voted with Trump in 2019 thus far, so it is clear that we can count on him to at least stand up to Trump and other Republican nonsense. Thus far Coons’s only opponent is Lee Murphy, whose claim to fame was starring alongside Kevin Spacey in House of Cards and a being a former candidate for the House of Representatives that lost in the Republican primaries.
It actually took a fair bit of looking to find out what Murphy’s political stances are, and they are not good. He supports Trump and thinks he needs Congressional support to “secure the border, to protect all Americans, and to revise the entire immigration process for safe and legal immigration.” Aside from the usual racist euphemism, I would like to point out that this sounds dangerously close to the white supremacist “14 words.” “We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.” It uses the word secure in the first part and basically means the same fucking thing. It’s a Neo Nazi dog whistle if I’ve ever heard one.
In one of the first few paragraphs of his website, he states that “Only if we all work together will we have a chance to defeat Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the radical socialist-leaning Democrat Party.” Yeah, the radical far leftist Nancy Pelosi who opposes the Green New Deal, thinks that Democrats have a responsibility to seek common ground with the people trying to strip us of our rights and are destroying the planet, and is basically the most pro establishment liberal I know? Jesus fucking Christ, Lee Murphy has no sense of perspective. How much do you want to bet he also thinks that leftists should “stop calling everyone they disagree with Nazis?”
There doesn’t seem to be much information on Lee Murphy, but it doesn’t seem likely he’ll be able to beat Chris Coons. Hell I have doubts he’ll even get the nomination, but I don’t know anyone else who is running in Delaware. Either way, if you live in Delaware, be sure to vote for Coons or a better Democrat if there is one running in the primaries.
If things continue at the same way they have been, then there will likely be around 220,000 people voting Democrat and 130,000 people voting Republican. So Coons would need to REALLY fuck things up in order to lose this one.
Georgia is a pretty red state at this time. Currently it has a Republican Governor, two Republican Senators, and nine of the fourteen House seats are Republican. I would classify Georgia as more of a red leaning purple state considering that some of those races have been pretty close. One of those two senate seats belongs to David Purdue, who is up for re-election in 2020. So now it’s time for the question; is he bad?
One would think that in the year 2019, that homophobia would be over. If you were to listen to old cishet white guys then you would believe that everyone has no objection to gay people existing. I mean sure, there are still no federal protections from discrimination against gay people, but they have the right to marry and then lose their job, their house, and income because they live a deep red homophobic shithole, but that’s okay! Also about half of congress is made up of open homophobes as I illustrated in my 2018 midterm piece.
We are now five for five in terms of incumbent republican senators being homophobes because David Perdue is definitely one of those. In February of 2014, he stated following in the Marietta Daily Journal.
“Georgians have already passed a constitutional amendment banning that action. As a senator, I’ve got to uphold that, so I support that, whatever the law of the land is in Georgia… As a U.S. senator, I’m not going to get involved in state decisions like this. It’s a constitutional amendment. If that changes, then I will support that with the population”
In September of 2014, less than a year later, he selected “strongly agree” on the Faith2Action iVoter Guide survey to the statement, “Marriage is a union of one man and one woman. No government has the authority to alter this definition.” So which one is it David? Will you go with what the population wants or does the government not have the authority to allow gay people to get married? Considering that he supported a bill to offer protections to homophobes from the federal government, I think we know what the answer is.
Quite predictably, he isn’t any better about trans people. Donald Trump’s military ban was poorly received by even Republicans. Most republican senators either disavowed the attacks like Dan Sullivan and Cory Gardner, or at least had the common sense to just stay silent or dodge the question like Tom Cotton or Martha McSally. After all, being allowed to use the restroom is one thing but if you dare take away someone’s right to kill innocent men, women, and children and be exposed to horrifying and scarring images that will haunt them for the rest of their lives then you’ve CROSSED THE FUCKING LINE!!!
But David Perdue is one of the few to openly support Trump’s hate campaign against trans people. Granted he didn’t flat out say “trannies should be banned from the military so they don’t use the toilets” or whatever right wing bigots think trans people do, but he came close. He responded with a dismissive “I don’t think this is the time to have a social agenda conversation… I think Trump is well within his rights to impose the ban.” So technically, he never actually said that he agrees with the ban, just that Trump “has the right to do it.”
First of all, he literally doesn’t have the right to on his own. That’s why we didn’t hear anything else about it until this year when the Supreme Court approved it. By the way, fuck you Neil Gorsuch and fuck you Brett Kavanaugh for even having those seats, as well as another fuck you to every Republican scumbag who refused to hold a vote to confirm Merrick Garland, and another fuck you to Obama for deciding it was better to feel better about himself for their integrity than to actually protect the rights of your citizens.
And secondly, when someone’s only argument in favor of something is “they have the right to do it,” they’ve basically admitted that it’s indefensible in any other way. He has already conceded that this ban is wrong yet he doesn’t care. Also the fact that he dismisses the basic human rights of over a million US citizens as a “social agenda conversation” is telling. It is specifically showing that he’s making a deliberate attempt to control the conversation, as demonstrated in the Innuendo Studio video, “The Alt-Right Playbook: Control the Conversation.”
This comment by Perdue is not only ignorant and stupid, but it is a deliberate attempt to draw attention away from the military ban. His statement is not intended to convince anyone that it is okay to strip trans people of their basic human rights, but to instead trick you into talking about something other than trans people being stripped of their basic human rights. He shifts the argument from “The Trump administration is stripping trans people of their basic human rights and David Perdue supports this” to “it is within Donald Trump’s position as President to strip trans people of their basic human rights.”
This will then prompt leftists to point out that Donald Trump does NOT have the right to strip trans people of their basic human rights, as well as pointing out that their dismissal of Donald Trump stripping trans people of their basic human rights as “a social agenda conversation” is utterly absurd. When the leftists talk about how Trump doesn’t have the right to strip trans people of their basic human rights or how David Perdue is so transphobic that he dismisses Donald Trump trying to strip trans people of their basic human rights as a mere “agenda,” they unwillingly change the topic to something other than the fact that David Perdue supports Donald Trump’s attempt to strip trans people of their basic human rights.
For those that haven’t caught on, my interrupting the previous topic of David Perdue’s transphobia to explain why David Perdue is wrong about Trump having the right to strip trans people of their basic human rights was intentional. It was done with the purpose of demonstrating how David Perdue has used a common alt right tactic to derail a conversation about how Donald Trump is trying to strip trans people of their basic human rights and that David Perdue supports this, so that no one talks about how David Perdue supports Donald Trump’s attempt to strip people of their basic human rights. As a result of this, I have repeatedly inserted variations of the phrase “Donald Trump is trying to strip trans people of their basic human rights and David Perdue supports this” into the last three paragraphs in order to do the opposite of what he intended. Did I mention that Donald Trump is trying to strip trans people of their basic human rights and David Perdue supports this?
It should also be noted that David Perdue is not content with bigotry against gay people and trans people, and that his company was sued for gender pay discrimination. This is in addition to the usual Republican shit like voting to defund Planned Parenthood, voting against net neutrality, voting in favor of SESTA/FOSTA, voting against the Green New Deal, voting to strip 32 million people of their health care, voting in favor of Trump’s national emergency declaration over his monument to white supremacy, voting in favor of 21 of Trump’s 22 cabinet pics, voting in favor of the Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh’s supreme court nominations (as well as comparing those that were upset that he voted for a rapist to the Supreme Court to literal Nazis), voting with Donald Trump 95% of the time, and being a climate change denier.
So yeah, David Perdue is a real piece of work isn’t he? Oh, did I say “piece of work?” I meant to say “piece of shit.” It has been speculated that it could still be possible for a Democrat to win against Perdue despite the fact that Stacy Abrams declined to run. Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson is thus far the only major candidate and she could have a decent shot. There are some other high profile contenders though. One of the more noticeable ones is that of former State Senator and 2014 Gubernatorial nominee Jason Carter. Jason Carter is the grand son of former President Jimmy Carter, and that alone may make for some serious brand recognition.
Another potential contender is Michelle Nunn, the CEO of CARE USA and 2014 Democratic Senate nominee. Some may be skeptical since she lost to Perdue in 2014, but she put up a pretty good fight against him in an especially terrible year for Democrats, and in a red state no less. She could have a good shot given that 2020 is bound to have a greater surge of Democratic voters.
Other potential candidates include voting rights advocate and Ebenezer Baptist Church pastor Raphael Warnock, 2017 candidate for Representative of Georgia’s 6th House district Jon Ossoff, State Representative Scott Holcomb, former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, and former State Representative Doug Teper.
Assuming that voting patterns in 2020 follow the same as 2018, we can expect about 2,009,400 people to vote Republican and about 1,876,069 to vote Democrat if there are no anomalies. The plus side is that there has been a slight increase in Democratic votes in 2018 compared to previous years so that could possibly continue into 2020.
I should note that I had the text of this piece ready to go for almost a few months now, but have sat on it since I initially planned on posting it all at once. However, I felt it would be better to split this up given just how long it would be otherwise. I have enough written that the second part just needs me to update it with any more recent information so it will likely be posted fairly soon. The rest may take longer to finish though but I will be working on them. As for why I am writing this piece while I am still in the first half of 2019, it is to facilitate discussion and spread awareness of these elections.
Everyone is so focused on the Presidential race while also failing to take into account that the Senate race is just as important. It doesn’t matter how good our new President is if we still have a Republican majority in 2020, because they will just continue to obstruct the hell out of whoever we elect. Speculation is more important than you think.
If you would like to support this series and my other work then please consider pledging to my Patreon. If you would like to help spread the word about this cause then please consider sharing my writing with friends or on social media with the hashtag #PinkTsunami. Anyway thanks for reading, and let’s hope for the best!